In
the Republican primary race, the newest NBC News/SurveyMonkey online poll shows
Donald Trump has the frontrunner spot to himself, with 28% support among
Republican and independent voters who lean Republican. Support for Ben Carson,
who was tied with Trump in last month's online poll, has fallen off by 8 points
and the former neurosurgeon is now tied with Ted Cruz at 18%. Trailing not too
far behind is Marco Rubio, at 11%.
The next tier of candidates has a lot of
catching up to do, with Jeb Bush at 4% and Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina
each with 3%.
During
the volatile primary season, the attention that is gained from being the lead
candidate in the polls can be a mixed blessing. The media tends to shift its
focus to those candidates leading the race - and that spotlight can seem
especially harsh to those who are newer to the political scene. At the same
time, rival candidates are quick to target any apparent or imagined flaw of
those in the lead. This is what happened to Ben Carson during the last two weeks,
as he came under scrutiny for biographical details in his memoir and criticism
for his lack of foreign policy expertise.
Carson
and the other Republican candidates still have more than two months before the
Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary to gain traction. Looking at a number of
subgroups may offer some clues as to how the early contests could go. The NBC
News/SurveyMonkey poll was conducted nationwide of 5,775 adults, including
2,440 Republican and Republican-leaning voters, which allows for us to look at
key voting blocs.
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